- "We have learned that risk awareness should be as much a part of a banker's DNA as commercial astuteness."
There's no shortage of 20-20 hindsight masquerading as confident prediction now that business is getting used to the turmoil of the markets. But this paper from AT Kearney's Johan Kesten is that rare commodity: a clear and well-argued agenda for getting banking back on track, complete with convincing examples and actionable advice.
Kestens summarises the origins of the current financial crisis, focusing on the drying up of public debt in the late 90s, the systemic errors made in the risk ratings of new types of credit derivatives, and the breakdown of mark-to-market valuation models. He also pinpoints issues of governance, organisational culture and regulatory failure. Acknowledging that customers' appetite for innovative investment products is unsurprisingly low in the light of evaporating confidence, Kestens suggests that memories are short: "Will greed surface again over the next three years?"
Kestens marshals seven ideas that banks can use to rebuild their capabilities and reputations. His first area is risk management, where he calls for proper appreciation of risk management throughout the management ranks, more equitable compensation schemes, alternative risk assessment models, scenario planning and simulation ("war games"), new reinsurance strategies and improved risk reporting.
His second area is the redefinition of business scope, starting with an improved understanding of the organisation's actual versus stated scope. He advocates concentrating on core competencies, citing winners who've stuck to the knitting and losers who've diversified away from what they know best. He advocates shielding lines of business from capital markets by making greater use of internal financing - implying that institutions have been lazy in their use of their own resources. Kestens remarks that organisational excellence, including reporting, is a competitive advantage. He recommends focused acquisitions and disposals, and greater use of outsourcing.
The third area of attention is product reinvention. Here Kesten advises banks to counter the natural commoditisation of banking products through the use of affinity, emotion and loyalty - offering real ideas for repositioning product lines. He also discusses product and feature bundling, and customer life stage modelling.
The fourth area for concern is the rebuilding of brand and trust. Consistency, emotional connection, and full and transparent communication are the keynotes here. This section segues neatly into "Do real marketing", an appeal for banks to get better at event-based marketing, and to work harder to understand online behaviours - especially the wealth of intelligence being generated in social networks.
Kestens' last two areas for attention concern distribution and IT. On the distribution side, he urges better mastery of online channels and greater recognition of contemporary customers' savvy, while advocating better management of the purpose, design and location of physical branches. In the IT arena, Kestens makes good arguments for service oriented architecture (SOA) and, perhaps surprisingly, careful systems design - the days when it was okay to assume that computing power is free and limitless have gone. He also makes sound points on the need for careful sequencing of change in IT; programme management is a notorious tanktrap for IT transformation.
The full text of the paper - which includes a valuable appendix on the future of investment banking - is available here.
It is extremely ironic that an industry built on profiting from risk needs to be reminded that risk management is core to its success. It really does show how they lost sight of the basics with almost no risk too big or incapable of being off-set, shared or reduced through some house-of-cards scheme or other. Faulty banks showed contempt for all stakeholders (customers, stock holders, staff & taxpayers) and unfortunately Johan's recipes will not prevent this happening again. It will take a deeper understanding of the context within which this occurred, was encouraged and rewarded and alternative regulatory, business and ownership models to create a sustainable banking industry. The problem is systemic and no amount of reminding, tinkering, educating or imaging will prevent the banking crises reoccurring - whilst banking remains a pig no amount of lipstick of this sort will make it any more attractive.
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